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Predicting customer churn before it happens

A large retailer used real-time churn prediction to reach at-risk customers with the right offer.

18%
reduction in customer churn

At a glance

Client
A large omnichannel retailerName withheld for confidentiality
Industry
Retail
Scope
Customer data platform, churn model and retention campaigns

The challenge

The retailer had tens of millions of customers but only noticed they had left months later, when purchases stopped. Retention offers went to everyone, wasting budget on loyal customers and missing those about to leave.

Customer data was split across e-commerce, stores and the loyalty programme.

Our approach

  1. Build a single customer view

    We joined online, in-store and loyalty data into one profile per customer.

  2. Model churn risk

    A machine learning model scores every customer's likelihood of leaving, refreshed daily.

  3. Personalise the response

    At-risk customers receive offers matched to what they value, not a generic discount.

  4. Measure the lift

    Control groups show exactly how many customers each campaign retains.

The solution

Marketing now sees which customers are likely to leave while there is still time to act, and why. Retention campaigns run automatically with personalised offers.

Budget goes to customers who need a reason to stay, and every campaign's effect is measured.

Results

18%
reduction in customer churn
  • One customer view across online, stores and loyalty
  • Daily churn risk scores for every customer
  • Personalised retention offers
  • Campaign impact measured against control groups

Technology used

  • Customer data platform
  • Python
  • Gradient boosting
  • Marketing automation
  • Snowflake

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