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Spotting high-risk patients before costly hospital stays

A health insurer used predictive risk scores to steer care managers towards the members who needed them most.

22%
reduction in avoidable admissions

At a glance

Client
A health insurerName withheld for confidentiality
Industry
Healthcare
Scope
Claims data platform, risk model and care management tooling

The challenge

Care managers could only support a small share of members, and they chose whom to call largely from past claims. By the time someone appeared as high-cost, they were often already in hospital.

Claims, pharmacy and member data sat in separate systems.

Our approach

  1. Bring data together

    Claims, pharmacy, diagnosis and demographic data were combined in a secure analytics platform.

  2. Predict risk

    Models estimate each member's chance of an avoidable admission in the coming months.

  3. Explain the score

    Each score lists the main risk factors so care managers know where to start.

  4. Fit the workflow

    Prioritised member lists appear in the care management system.

The solution

Care managers now start each week with a prioritised list of members at rising risk, along with the reasons behind each score. Outreach happens earlier, when prevention still works.

Privacy controls and access rules protect member data throughout.

Results

22%
reduction in avoidable admissions
  • Unified claims and pharmacy data
  • Forward-looking risk scores for every member
  • Explainable risk factors for care managers
  • Prioritised outreach lists in existing tools

Technology used

  • Python
  • Healthcare data models
  • Explainable ML
  • Azure Synapse
  • Power BI

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